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Our future, our universe, and other weighty topics


Thursday, May 4, 2017

Will Complex Code Cause Our Collapse?

Our complex society increasingly depends on computer software code, and that code is growing ever more complex and unmanageable. It is already very common in large companies for there to exist large software systems that no single person understands very well. When you have a large software system with more than 100,000 lines of code, it will often be that one person knows certain aspects of the software system, and someone else knows other parts of it; but there is no person who understands the full system very well.

As demand for software functionality grows, software engineers sometimes resort to using code generators. These are software tools that can quickly generate many lines of code. But such code is often very hard to understand. By using a code generator, a software developer may quickly add 10,000 lines of new code to a software system. But he may not understand such code. A rough rule of thumb among programmers is: if I didn't write the code, I don't understand it.

Many advanced computer programs use what are called neural networks or deep learning. When such code is used, the software ends up being pretty incomprehensible to humans. Software decisions end up being driven by extremely complex data, often data that is distributed across many different layers. In complex cases of such implementations, the computer itself doesn't understand how the data determines the decision, and neither does a human. It's what programmers call a “black box.”

There is a strong possibility of a future complexity crisis in which humans find they have created software systems of unfathomable intricacy that they can no longer understand. We can imagine a certain level of complexity – call it Complexity Level 10 -- that is the most complex level that any human can understand. It is all too possible that humans might build their way up to Complexity Level 11 or Complexity Level 12 or some higher level. There would then be a possibility of an “overshoot and collapse” situation, in which computer systems around the world start to break down because they have become too complex for anyone to understand, maintain or fix.

You don't have to have lots of bugs for a complex system to fail. A space probe to Mars failed because of a single line of errant software code. In a case like that, it wasn't good enough that 99.999% of the code worked right.

On May 6, 2010 there occurred an event called the Flash Crash, in which the stock market underwent a trillion-dollar dip, dropping by 900 points at 2:32 PM. By the end of the day, the market had largely recovered. The dramatic dip of the Flash Crash was apparently caused by program trading, in which investment portfolios are controlled by extremely complicated computer programs. No one is exactly sure why the Flash Crash occurred. It seems to be an example of complex computer programs acting in an unpredictable manner. We can only wonder whether some future version of the Flash Crash may bring down the financial system, or perhaps the electrical grid.

Some people are not worried about such a possibility, because they think that super-intelligent computers will fill in the gap. The idea can be stated like this:

Sure, software code will become too complex for humans to understand; but that's no problem because our ever-more-brilliant computers will be able to understand that code. Our computers will probably take over the job of writing and maintaining their own software, freeing us humans from such burdens.

But I believe we should reject the idea that computers will become smart enough to understand their own software code. Computers process information, crunch numbers, and process information. But they do not currently understand a single thing. A computer may be able to tell us instantly when Abraham Lincoln was born, but no computer has any real understanding of what a birth is, what a day is, what a human is, or who Abraham Lincoln was. There is no reason to think that any future advances will somehow give computers the understanding they now lack. A computer that does not understand anything will not suddenly be able to understand a little bit if we add some more lines of software code or some more chips or processors. Thinking that a computer will one day have understanding once you add faster processors or more lines of code to its software seems to be like thinking that one day when you get a much better TV, you'll be able to have a child fathered by your favorite TV character.

It seems, then, that we will not be saved from a software complexity crisis by computers that understand software code that has progressed beyond human understanding. A software complexity crisis will be worsened by short-sighted programming managers who demand more and more features be added to software, regardless of how this makes the code more and more difficult to maintain. We can compare such figures to real estate developers who keep yelling, “Higher, higher, higher!” to their architects, without worrying about buildings in danger of collapse because they are built too high.

The risks from such a software complexity crisis are great. Imagine it is the year 2030, and you are a typical computer programmer. Computer systems around the world may be undergoing more and more breakdowns, and your job is to fix one of them. You take a look at the software code, and see before you an ocean of unfathomable intricacy, perhaps a million lines of hard-to-read code. You ask yourself: how on earth did something like this ever come into existence? It's like the tangled jungle of complexity that is the US Tax Code, but much worse. After looking at just a little of the software, you feel like some ordinary person reading a 50-page scientific paper on quantum mechanics. You know your choice: either admit to your boss that you are hopelessly over your head, or cross your fingers and try to make some “blind fix,” rather like a layman walking into a nuclear power plant, and trying to fix rising core temperatures by fiddling with some of the dials. 

frustration
The agony of code too complex for you to understand

Then imagine such a situation happening in 10,000 different offices, to 50,000 “over their head” programmers, and you have a taste of the software complexity crisis that may lie ahead. I mentioned the possibility of the financial system or the power grid failing because of such a crisis. Another possibility is that we may upgrade nuclear weapon systems so that they are centered around computer systems that become way too complex to maintain or understand. A single fault in such a system might cause a nuclear war. The movie Fail Safe depicted such a thing when a small electronic unit failed, but the same thing might happen because of a single errant line of software code. Will some nuclear holocaust one day occur because of some computer code that grew too complex to be manageable?